We’ve got just two weeks until the election and the race is tightening in some of the polls that matter the most, key battleground states, while one major national polls shows President Trump, who’s trailed for months now, within just 2 points of Joe Biden — about where he was against Hillary Clinton around this time in 2016.
Battleground States:
While the national polls can be helpful in trying to gauge widespread public sentiment and momentum, the election, of course, isn’t decided by the popular vote — the data that matters most comes from the states. The problem is, as 2016 demonstrated, state polling is often more inaccurate due in part to less thorough information. Trump’s 304–227 electoral defeat of Clinton in 2016, despite heading into election day with a predicted loss of at least 6 votes, was a product of multiple election day reversals in key battleground states: polls showed Trump trailing in Michigan by 3.4, but he won by 1 point; Trump trailed by 6.5 points in Wisconsin, won by 1; Trump trailed by 2 in Pennsylvania, eked out another 1-point win again. Read more…